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New Scientific Evidence Proves
Ozone Depletion Theory
False

New
scientific evidence continues to demonstrate that the ozone depletion models
-and the resulting ban on CFCs- are based on a Big Lie

By Rogelio
Maduro

Co-author of the book "The Holes in the Ozone
Scare", 1993

New satellite ozone data and
other atmospheric studies based on actual measurements confirm that the ozone
layer is not a homogeneous, flat and that atmospheric dynamics, not chemistry,
is the driving factor that determines the thickness of the ozone layer. The
scientific research reported here strips any shred of credibility from the
claims of the ozone depletion theorists leaving the Montreal Protocol backed
only by the Malthusian ideotogy of its founders.

The dramatic new
satellite ozone data, featured on the cover, are from the Crista-Spas ensemble
of instruments, designed by scientists at the University of Wuppertal in
Germany, which was deployed by the Space Shuttle in November 1994. The Crista
team announced its first results at a press conference in Bonn on Nov. 6,
1995, but the results of the mission were barely covered in the European
press, and not covered at all in the United States.

Crista-Spas is a group of instruments (Crista), deployed on a
space platform (Spas), that measures atmospheric gases in such detail that it
can create three-dimensional images of the distribution of the gases in the
stratosphere (see
Crista-Spas Project). As the German scientists told the press,
these 3-D images show that the models behind the ozone depletion scare are
completely, and axiomatically, wrong. In the words of Germany's Die
Welt newspaper Nov. 7, the evidence presented at this press conference
means that "all ozone computer models produced so far have, in effect, turned
into waste paper. [Makulatur]."

The Crista-Spas is one of those
unique experiments that gives scientists a look at the real processes that
shape the atmosphere. Like the early weather satellites that showed us the
first top-down, global views of hurricanes and storm systems, Crista-Spas has
now provided us with the first set of three-dimensional images of atmospheric
gases. Crista-Spas is able to monitor 15 atmospheric gases in great depth and
detail. It is a joint project of the University of Wuppertal and the
German Space Agency (DARA) together with NASA.

The 3-D images demonstrate that the ozone is organized in
complex dynamic vertical and filamentary structures that are constantly
changing, in patterns as complex as those of weather systems near the surface.
In contrast, the computer models used by the promoters of the ozone depletion
and global warming scares assume that the ozone layer is homogeneous, and use
linear equations to model the stratosphere. Any attempt to model complex
nonlinear processes (such as those demonstrated to occur in the ozone layer)
with zonal averaging and linear equations, will invariably give wrong results,
regardless of how big a supercomputer is used. The methodology is
axiomatically wrong. Yet, this erroneous methodology is what the
promoters of the ozone depletion scare have been using to forecast ozone
depletion rates and to make policy (See "The Ozone
Depletion Theory"). The Crista researchers emphasized this point
in their Nov. 6, 1995 press statement:

"One can only understand
these occurrences if one examines them in their totality and mutual
interdependence. One finds no solution to the ozone problem if one examines
only the photochemical side, but neglects the energetics and
dynamics."

"Instead of a uniform distribution of ozone along a [band of
constant] latitude, as the current models predict. Cristas showed a patchwork
of large and small structures in the ozone distribution ... The first results
show that photochemical models alone do not adequately describe the condition
of the atmosphere. Dynamic processes and transports must be considered, for
which temperatures, waves, and turbulences show themselves
responsible."

Dr. Ulrich
Grossman, one of the leaders of the Crista project at the University of
Wuppertal, summarized some of the results in an interview: (1)

"The main point is that
the instrument measures with an extremely high spatial resolution in a very
short time. So we get a very dense measurement net over the globe within the
constraints of the Shuttle orbit. What we see in nearly all emissions and also
in ozone density is that there are large fluctuations from point to point and
that the ozone distribution in a horizontal map looks like a weather
map."

When
the modelers "talk about zonally averaged values, it
is useless," Grossman said. The ozone layer "is very, very structured. All these structures are moving
around, like what you see in the weather map... You have to take all these
into account if you want to make a real, reliable forecast for ozone over the
next... 20 or 40 years."

Because all the processes involving all these gases in the
atmosphere generally are nonlinear, when you take
averages, you make mistakes. Once you are down to precision on
the order of [hundredths], the errors which you would make by using average
values are much bigger than that. Grossman does not believe that even a
"mathematical program with the best
computers" would be able to do this properly.

Models Versus
Reality

The shortcomings of the
existing ozone models is a central issue. The Nov. 6 Wuppertal press release
states:

"A further
scientific goal [of the mission] is the examination of the validity of the
so-called atmosphere models. Until now computer simulation models were used
for the prediction of certain changes in the atmosphere, as for instance the
ozone hole or greenhouse effect, as the only expression of these phenomena.
The high quotient of error (1 to 2 errors in 1,000 program steps with a total
of 1 million steps) places our "knowledge" of the protective layer of the
Earth in question. Crista delivers for the first time scientifically grounded
information."

Crista
measured ozone distribution from 15 to 95 kilometers in altitude. The expected
values are based on the so-called Keating model, compiled from earlier experimental
results. The Keating model shows no variations in the ozone density along a
line of constant latitude, so that the ozone distribution is assumed to be a
clear band structure, with densities greatest at the equator and diminishing
toward the poles. During the Nov. 6 press conference, Crista researcher
Dr. Martin Riese summarized the more
significant results of the mission, especially the dynamical structures. One
of his most interesting observations is that the so-called ozone hole over
Antarctica is the result of dynamicprocesses in the atmosphere, not af
man-made chemicals. According to Riese:

"The correspondirig ozone
distribution measured by Crista presents a completely different picture [from
the Keating model], Although the ozone density diminishes from the equator
toward the poles, the band structure of the Keating model is no longer
visible. This is especially true for the high northerly and southerly
latitudes. A large number of larger (10,000 km) and smaller (1,000 km)
structures appear. In addition, there are in part considerable fluctuations of
the ozone layer from one measurement point to the next. In total, the ozone
distribution resembles a patchwork."

"The large structure is an area
with relatively low ozone concentrations at the high northerly latitudes. The
polar vortex, which is building up, is visible here, in which a sideways
movement of the air masses is visible. This sideways motion causes ozone-poor
air from greater heights to be transported to an altitude of 30 km."

"A
structure of medium size is found northwest of Tierra del Fuego [at the tip of
South America]. There is an area of extremely low ozone concentration in the
region of the outwardly directed south polar vortex. This does not concern the
so-called ozone hole, which also occurs in the south polar vortex, but at
lower altitudes. The ozone hole is a consequence of the peculiar
meteorological conditions in the southern winter, which lead to a very stable
polar vortex and thereby permit a complete destruction of the ozone between 12
and 22 km in the southern spring. In contrast, the low ozone densities at 30
km are mainly a consequence of the transporting away of ozone".

"Crista
is designed, in particular, to detect the small-scale structures. The many
small structures found in the ozone distribution retrospectively confirm the
development of the Crista experiments. The fluctuations that occur from one
point of measurement to the next play a great role in the calculation of
photochemically influenced production and loss of trace gases. Further
small-scale structures of interest are the so-called filaments. These are thin
stream-threads which are predicted by the theory and which play a role in
observations of the stability of the polar vortex. From understanding the
filaments, the question of whether or not there can be an ozone hole at the
North Pole assumes greater meaning. In the case at hand, northwest from the
ozone hole there appears a filament, which in the future, on the basis of
other trace gas measurements taken by Crista, will be more precisely
examined".

The Crista-Spas experiments
have been in the making for more than 10 years, and over this period, the
University of Wuppertal has also launched rockets and baloons with different
types of infrared spectrometers. According to Dr. Grossman, it took this long
to complete the Crista experiment largely because funding for this kind of
reseaeh is limited.

Grossman stressed the difference between the models and their associated
theories, and the results from the Wuppertal series of experiments.
"In every rocket experiment",
he said, "you see a very
structured profile. You see variation from one day to the other, from
kilometer to kilometer ... The results never, never looked like a model
prediction". Their earlier results were always so different
from the model predictions, he said, that they realized that "it can't be that we accidentally always launch on the spot on
the Earth and at the time where there is a disturbance in the atmosplwe, and
otherwise it is quiet." The Wuppertal researchers concluded
from their rocket and balloon experiments that the structures they were
finding must be constantly occurring, and that the only way to look into this
was to build a satellite for this purpose.

The project was eventually funded by the German Space Agency. The satellite
was built by industry while Grossman and his students at the university built
the instruments, except for the cryostat (see Crista-Spas project). NASA has been
very helpful to them, Grossman said, by providing the Space Shuttle to carry
Crista-Spas aloft.

Dynamics, Not
Chemistry

The primary role of dynamical processes in
determining the thickness of the ozone layer has also been established in
other extensive field work. On Dec. 1,Geophysical
Research Letters, a joumal of the American Geophysical Union, published a
scientific paper by scientists from Norwegian and Russian institutes
demonstrating that the thickness of the ozone layer over Russia is determined by meteorology, not chemistry. (2)The scientists, Kjell Henriksen from the
University of Tromso in Norway and Valentin Roldugin from the Polar
Geophysical Institute in Russia, analyzed one year of daily samples from six
Soviet Middle Asian ozone measuring stations at two different altitudes.

They discovered that changes in the
ozone layer were directly caused by the horizontal and vertical movement of
air masses (that
is, wind dynamics). A close analysis of the data also demonstrated that
chemistry played no role in the thickness
of the ozone layer over these stations.
Theauthors discuss the implications of
their work in detail:

Intensive investigations on
irregular variations of the total ozone during the last years point out many
phenomena as possible sources. Influences related to homogeneous and
heterogeneous chemistry, volcanic activity, solar proton events, and other
forms of solar activity are documented ... The main cause, however, may be
influences from meteorological conditions, and these relations have got much
less attention. The role of horizontal advection and vertical motion as a
significant source for ozone column variations has been studied more than 40
years ... Recently Rabbe and Larsen (3) have
indicated dynamic processes in the atmosphere as a main reason of ozone
variations and ozone "miniholes." They show that ascending motion of the air
is accompanied by dilution of the ozone layer, and vice versa, descending
motion of the air causes enhanced density of the ozone layer. The causes of
ascending and descending motions are often winds blowing across mountain
ranges. Such vertical air movements will cause adiabatic expansion and
compression with cooling and warming in time scales down to a few hours.
Chemical processes can also contribute to ozone variations, but here the time
scales are days. On the other hand, ozone variations with periods in the order
of 10 days, and seasonal variations as well can also be explained by dynamic
meteorological reasoning.

After a detailed analysis of the
Russian data, Henriksen and Roldugin conclude with a sharp reminder to the
promoters of the ozone depletion fraud that they cannot arbitrarily exclude
factors other than chemistry from their models:

The question of so-called "ozone
depletion" has to be investigated from the point of view of long-term
variation of general circulation in the atmosphere. Models of "the depletion,"
as summarized in [the World Meteorological Organization's] WMO Report, must
realize that the meteorological conditions have significant effects on the
ozone layer, being the main cause of seasonal as well as most of the shorter
and apparently arbitrary density and thermal variations.

No Ozone Depletion over Norway

Other scientific papers have
confirmed that the ozone depletion theory is wrong. The Norwegian science
magazine From the World of
Physics, for example, published a thorough review of ozone
science by Thormod Henriksen from the Institute of Physics at the University
of Oslo, which presents evidence that the ozone layer was thinner in the 1940s
than today! (4)

Norway has several of the ozone
measuring stations that have been operating continuously for the longest
periods of time, and these are managed by some of the most qualified
scientists in the field. Thus, Norway has some of the best, consistent data
for a historical analysis of ozone trends. Henriksen describes the history of
ozone research in Norway, and analyzes the ozone data starting in the 1940s.
Figure 1 compares measurements done at the Dombaas research center in two
periods: 1940-1946 and 1978-1994. As can be seen, the ozone layer went through
a thinning process in the 1940s similar to that occurring now, with the
exception, as noted by Henriksen, that "the ozone
layer over southern Norway was thinner in the period between 1940 to 1946 than
it is today." Henriksen also points out
that the level of ultraviolet (UV) radiation have hardly changed:

"[In] the last 50 years the
ozone layer has not changed to such a degree that biological effects are to be
expected. In other words, there have hardly been any changes in the levels of
UV-radiation, and therefore it is a dead-end to connect the recent years'
development of the ozone layer with the increase of skin
cancer."

Henriksen concludes:

"We can safely state that the
picture of a depletion of the ozone layer is far more complicated than the
picture that the media often gives. Those who expect a depletion timed with
the release of CFC gases, will look in vain in their measurement results. It
looks like the amount of ozone did increase in the 1950s and 1960s and reached
a maximum in the 1970s. Since then, the amount of ozone has been decreasing.
We believe that the low values in 1992 and 1993 are due to the volcano Mt.
Pinatubo."

Figure
1
SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE OZONE LAYER
OVER NORWAY (1940-1946 and
1978-1994)

Measurements of ozone levels over
southern Norway show that a thinning process occurred very similarly in
1940-1946 and 1978-1987 and 1988-1994 -except that the measured ozone
levels were lower in the 1940s than now.

Source: Adapted
from Thormod Henriksen, "Ozone Layer and Ultraviolet Radiation",
1994.

More
Evidence of No Depletion

Another way of taking on the
unreliability of the ozone depletion theory is to examine the fudge factor in
how the scare story data are presented. Harvard Astrophysicist
Sallie Baliunas put the data in
perspective in a paper presented at a congressional hearing on ozone, Sept.
20, 1995. (5) Baliunas focussed on the unreliability of the estimates of
ozone depletion, which have claimed as much as 0.3
percent depletion per year. The natural variability of the
ozone layer, she said, is orders of magnitude greater than the alleged
man-made "depletion." "Over Washington,
D.C.," she noted, "ozone varies
annually by 25 percent, some 80 times greater than the stated anthropogenic
decline."

Furthermore, any estimate of "ozone depletion," she said, has to factor the
natural variability of the Sun's ultraviolet output (which is what creates the
ozone layer in the first place), and the shift in wind patterns and
meteorological conditions, particularly in the upper atmosphere. In addition,
as on the ozone layer, Baliunas also examined the statistical fudge methods
used by the ozone depletion theorists to embellish their theory. The 1994
World
Meteorological Organization's (WMO) report on ozone depletion, for
example, estimates the depletion starting from two points, 1970 and 1978-1979.
The choice for the second set of data is clear; that's when satellites started
measurements. The choice for the first starting point, supposedly arbitrary,
is actually designed to skew the ozone
record. As Figure 2 shows, the thickness of the ozone layer
goes up and down considerably from year to year. The 1957 readings, however,
show that the thickness of the ozone layer is about the same as it is today;
thus, there has been no long-term depletion of the
ozone layer. By ignoring ozone readings before 1970, the WMO
begins its analysis with "a year of maximum ozone abundance for the entire 34-year
record...." As Baliunas comments:

"Choosing 1970 or 1978-1979 as
the starting point creates the maximum possible downward trends in ozone since
then. The selections of the starting points, for example, 1976 or 1957, would
indicate no significant downward trend since then. The fact that the inferred
trend depends entirely on the selection of the endpoints means that the trend
has not been reliably determined."

Another graphic distortion in the WMO report is to magnify ozone depletion
by plotting very small changes out of context. One WMO figure, highlighted by
Baliunas, omits the zero- point of the scale, so the amount of depletion looks
extremely large from one data point to the next. When the WMO figure is
compared with a normal presentation of the same data (Figure 2, below), as
Baliunas notes, "the fluctuations in ozone are seen
to be insignificant."

Figure 2:
OZONE FUDGE: TWO WAYS OF LOOKING AT THE SAME DATA

The data
for ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere show insignificant variations,
but can be manipulated to show what looks like a big hole,
simply by changing the scale. Dr. Baliunas pointed out, in her
testimony to Congress, that the World Meteorological Organization version
of these ozone data (a) leaves out the zero point of the scale, making
small variations seem very large. The same data viewed on a scale from 0
to 350 (b) shows the ozone fluctuations to be insignificant.

Source: from Dr. Sallie Baliunas' testimony to US Congress,
Sept.,20, 1995.

The Skin
Cancer Scare

How has such a technical matter as
stratospheric chemistry come to dominate headlines around the world and
mobilize politicians to impose a ban that will cost their nations over $5
trillion over the next few years? The answer is fear of increased numbers of
deaths from skin cancer as more ultravioiet radiation hits the Earth,
supposedly the result of ozone depletion. If it were not for the mass hysteria
that has been created over the alleged dangers of an increase in skin cancer
rates, there would be no ban on CFCs today, and newspapers would not even
bother to cover the issue.

For example, during the same four- to six-week period that the so-called
ozone hole appears over Antarctica, a nitrogen oxide (NOx) hole also develops
over the same area. Both the so-called ozone hole and nitrogen oxide hole are
created in Antarctica by the same natural phenomena, but mentioning this and
other unusual phenomena over Antarctica would raise too many questions in
people's minds about the extraordinary chemistry that takes place at the end
of the polar winter in Antarctica, and would lead people to question the ozone
scare. So, the NOx hole is never meritioned.

Let's look at the UV/cancer theory. First, the scare stories about UV and
ozone depletion are based on increases in UV that are minuscule, compared with
the natural variations in UV-B that are determined by one's altitude and
distance from the Equator. Second, there is no evidence that levels of UV-B
have increased at the surface of the Earth, despite the claims of worldwide
ozone depletion. And third, biological research now indicates that it is not UV-B that causes the malignant types of skin cancer,
but UV-A, which is not screened out by the ozone layer.

The ozone depletion theory predicts that there will be a 10 to 20 percent
increase in the level of UV-B radiation at the surface as a result of ozone
depletion. This might seem like a large increase, unless one knows something
about the geometry of the Sun and the Earth. UV-B varies by 5,000 percent from
the Equator to the Poles. It also varies with altitude. This is the result of
simple geometry: There is more sunlight exposure at the Equator and the
atmosphere is thinner in the mountains, so more UV-B gets through.

In midlatitudes such as that of the United States, a 1 percent increase in
UV-B is the equivalent of moving 6 miles south (closer to the Equator). Thus,
the alleged increase in UV radiation, according to the theory, would be the
equivalent of what a person would receive if he were to move 60 to 120 miles
south – the equivalent of moving from New York City to Philadelphia.

Actual instrumental measurements of ultraviolet radiation at the
surface show that there has been no increase in UV levels, despite
widespread claims of ozone depletion in northern latitudes. Just as with the
ozone layer, the levels of UV radiation go through tremendous seasonal
fluctuations. The amount of incoming UV radiation is modulated by several
factors, including the angle of the Sun at that particular time of the year
(lowest in winter), incoming solar radiation, sun spots, thickness of the
ozone layer, meteorological conditions (cloud cover, and so on) and pollution.
Accurately determining the amount of UV radiation requires long-term madings
over an extensive network. Curiously enough, while tens of billions of dollars
have been spent on "ozone research" almost no money
has been spent on UV readings at the surface.

The most extensive study to date of UV-B radiation at the surface is that
conducted by Joseph Scotto and his
collaborators at the National Cancer Institute. The study, published in the
Feb. 12, 1988, issue of Science,(6) presented evidence that the amount of UV-8
reaching ground level stations across the United States had not increased, but in fact, had decreased between 1974 and 1985. Instead of
rejoicing at the results, the promoters of the ozone depletion scare saw to it
that the network of observing stations was shut
down, by cutting its funding (less than $500,000 out of more
than $1.75 billion in research funds to study "climate change").

One of the recent attempts to contradict the Scotto study was an article by
J.B. Kerr and C.T. McElroy, published in Science magazine in 1993, claiming an upward trend in
UV radiation over Toronto. (7) The results were front-page news
intemationally, but when it was soon demonstrated by other scientists that the
so-called trend was based on faulty statistical manipulation (8) this reverse got little publicity.
The entire "rise" in UV was based on readings taken
during the last 3 days of five years of measurementes!

A correct statistical analysis showed that
the trend in UV was zero that is to
say, the amount of UV had neither increased nor decreased over the five-year
period). Interestingly enough, the Canadian study
had been rejected for publication by Nature. At the time the Canadian paper was
submitted to Science, F. Sherwood
Rowland was the president of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science, publisher of
Science. According to knowledgeable
sources, Rowland rammed through the publication of the paper despite its
obvious errors.

Taking Another look at
UV-8 and Cancer

In July 1993, Dr. Richard Setlow of
Brookhaven National Laboratory published the results of an experiment
indicating that malignant melanoma skin cancers are caused not by UV-B, the
part of the UV spectrum filtered out by the ozone layer, but by UV-A, a part
of the spectrum that is not affected by the thickness of the ozone layer. (9) In other words, this research indicates that
the thickness of the ozone layer is irrelevant to
the rates of malignant melanoma, which is the fundamental
threat allegedly posed by ozone depletion.

But what about the dramatic
increases in reparted cases of skin cancer? The increases are real, but they
cannot be blamed on ozone depletion. This is the determination of the world's
foremost photobiologists working on the effects of sunlight on the body, who
gathered for an international conference on "Ozone,
Sun, Cancer" in Paris in May 1994. (10) These experts concluded that present rates
of skin cancer are caused by a variety of factors, but "the main determinant is individual behavior" –
in other words, overexposure to the sun, the use of tanning parlors, and,
perhaps, the use of sunscreen lotions.

Many scientists pointed out that
the range of ultraviolet radiation that causes malignant melanoma is UV-A,
thus confirming the research by Dr. Richard
Setlow of Brookhaven National Laboratory. Previously, it had
been considered that UV-A was the "safe" range of ultraviolet light, while UV-B,
which is partially filtered by the ozone layer, was the "unsafe" portion of the
spectrum.

Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A.
Dahlback state the point strongly: (11) "Increasing rates of CMM
[cutaneous malignant melanoma] are not caused by an ongoing ozone
depletion." The scientists further note:

"In some studies a
tendency of ozone depletion (= 0.03% per year in summer and = 0.27% per year
in winter) has been reported also for northern latitudes (55°N). Could this be
the reason for the alarming increase in the incidence rates of skin cancer
observed over several decades in several countries? Obviously not, since the
increasing trend in UV found from 1968 to l990 is too small (only a few
percent) to account for the tripling of the CMM incidence rates found for the
same period. [See Figure 3.] Thus, the increasing rates of skin cancer seem to
be due to changing habits of solar exposure; A strong indication for this is
that the increasrng trend of CMM in Norway is lowest for CMM arising on the
face and largest for CMM arising on the female breasts. This is likely due to
the introduction of the topless swimming suit in the years after
1970."

Figure
3

INCREASING RATES OF MALIGNANT MELANOMA IN NORWAY
(1960-1990)

The alarming increses in skin cancer (cutaneous malignant
melanoma) in Norway in the past two decades (a) are not caused by ozone
depletion, according to Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A. Dahlback. The
increases in ultraviolet (b) are far too small for the tripling of skin
cancer rates. They blame sunbathing and the introduction of topless
swimming suits for the increases.

Source: Adapted from J. Moan and
A. Dahlback, 1995.

Moan and
Dahlback also address the beneficial aspects of UV radiation. In fact, there
is a body of evidence indicating that both sunlight and UV-B províde health
benefits. As Moan and Dahlback point out, when UV-B strikes the skin, it turns
cholesterol molecules into the hormone cholecalciferol, vitamin D, which plays
a crucial role in the body's calcium and potassium chemistry.
Therefore, they write:

"Since vitamin D seems to
have a protective effect against the development of several forms of cancer,
including breast cancer, prostate cancer, gastrointestinal cancer and CMM, an
ozone depletion may also have a beneficial effect, notably for persons that
get.small exposures to solar radiation. In fact, the increase in mortality
rates of colon cancer from south to north in USA has been attributed to the
protective role of Sun-induced vitamin D. Similar south-north gradients exist
also for breast and ovary cancer, notably for postmenopausal women. An
improvement of the vitamin D status may also be preventive with respect to
osteomalacia in elderly people".

The
Norwegian scientists also have an uncharacteristically harsh criticism of
those who have promoted other UV-ozone scares, such as Prof. J.C. Van der Leun, a Dutch dermatologist,
who has warned of epidemics of cataracts, immune suppression, and photoaging
of the skin. Moan and Dahlbeck state that "even
though it is well documented that UV radiation can cause such effects, little
epidemiological data seem to be available for an evalution of their
significance in relation to ozone depletion."

A Policy of Genocide

The
latest atmospheric data, presented here, confirm that the ozone depletion
theory is a scientific fraud. In fact, the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs was
signed in 1987, despite the fact that there was no
scientific evidence to support such a ban, and that the people
who organized the treaty knew that there was no such evidence. Richard Elliot Benedick, the U.S. State
Department official responsible for negotiating the Montreal Protocol, says so
plainly in his bookOzone Diplomacy. (12)

"The Montreal Protocol on
Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer mandated significant reductions in the
use of several extremely useful chemicals.... By their action, the signatory
countries sounded the death knell for an important part of the international
chemical industry, with implications for billions of dollars of investments
and hundreds of jobs in related sectors. The protocol did not simply prescribe
limits on these chemicals based on "best available technology," which had been
a traditional way of reconciling environmental goals with economic interests.
Rather, the negotiators established target dates for replacing products that
had become synonymous with modern standards of living, even though the
requisite technologies did not yet exist.

At the time of the negotiations and signing, no measurable evidence of
damage existed. Thus, unlike environmental agreements of the past, the treaty
was not a response to harmful developments or events, but rather a preventive
action on a global scale".

What Benedick knew, but did not
say, is that the ban on CFCs would directly and indirectly cause millions of
deaths per year, and that he supports this mass murder.

Seven years after the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs, the "evidencé of damage" still does not exist, and
the Montreal Protocol has served as the shining example for new international
environmental treaties. The Climate
Treaty, the Biodiversity
Treaty, and others, have been signed despite the lack of scientific evidence, the
argument being that the delegates are just following the example of the
Montreal Protocol.

The ban on the production of CFCs took effect on Jan. 1, 1996, in
the United States. This event, which most people may not even notice until
their car air conditioners break down, is earth-shaking. The production of one
of the most useful chemicals irivented by man – literally, the life-blood of
the world.'s food refrigeration system – is ending.

By preserving the food iupply and keeping it wholesome, refrigeration is
one ot the major factors in the dramatic increase in human life expectancy in
the past half-century. By removing these inexpen-sive, benign, and efficient
coolants, the Montreal Protocol measures put at risk the poorest popula-tions
in the world, those for whom the more expensive refrigerant replacements will
make the cost of refrigeration prohibitive. The entire worldwide food chain
depends on CFCs. CFCs are used in refrigeration systems at the time crops are
harvested and during transportation, storage, and distribution. This
refrigeration "cold chain" depends on a steady supply of CFCs and HCFCs. (13)

There are no drop-in substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs for most refrigerators,
freezers, and refrigerated transports, which means that as supplies disappear,
existing equipment shuts down or is scrapped. Most nations of the world cannot
afford to replace this equipment. As a result of the ban on CFCs, the cold
chain is already collapsing in the poorer areas of the world, particularly
Africa and Eastern Europe.

Public health also suffers from this cold chain collapse, because most
vaccines and many medicines need to be refrigerated. In addition, a ban on the
agricultural pesticide and fumigant methyl
bromide, for which there is no available chemical substitute,
means that many countries will lose the ability to export their crops, and
that dangerous pests will spread to other areas of the world to destroy crops
and attack people. Methyl bromide is crucial to preserve food in storage,
particularly grains. More than one third of the world's grain supply will be
lost if methyl bromide is banned.

In 1992, iaternational refrigeration experts estimated that the ban on CFCs
was going to kill between 20 to 40 million people every year by the end of the
decade, through hunger, starvation, and foodborne diseases. This is now an
underestimate, given the addition of methyl bromide to the list of chemicals
to be banned, and given the emergence of new and old diseases.

Can the Montreal Protocol and this nation's ozone policy be reversed?
Sherwood Rowland and his colleagues often assert that there are "no credible"
scientists or science opposing their theories. Their Big Lie stands exposed.

Rogelio A. Maduro is the co-author
of "The Holes in tHe Ozone Scare: The Scientific
Evidence That the Sky Isn't Falling", and an associate
editor of 21st Century Science & Technology magazine.

Notes:

Interview wilh Ulrich Grossman, head af the Crista
Project at the University of Wuppertal, Germany, Nov. 15, 1995.

KjeII
Henriksen and Vahentin Roldugin, 1995. Geophysical Research
Letters, Dec. 1, pp. 3219-3222.

A. Rabbe and S.H.H. Larsen, 1992. "Ozone Variations in the
Northern Hemisphere Due to Dynamic Processes in the Atmosphere,
Journal of
Atmospberic and Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 54, pp. 1107-1112; and
A. Rabbs and S.H.H. Larsen, 1992. "Ozone 'Minihole' over Northem
Scandinavia." Joumal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Vol.
54, pp. 1447-1451.

Thormod
Henriksen, 1994. "Ozone Layer and Ultraviolet Radiation," From the
World of Physics, Vol. 4, pp. 108-114.

Sallie
Baliunas, 1995. "Ozone Variations and Accelerated Phaseout of
CFCs," Testimony presented at hearings ot the House Science Committes's
Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, Sept. 20.

Joseph
Scotto, Gerald Cotton, Frederick Urback, et al., 1988. "Biologically
Effective Ultraviolet Radiation: Surface Measurements in the United States,
1974 to 1985", Science, Vol. 239 (Feb. 12), pp. 762-764.

J.B.
Kerr, and C.T. McElroy, 1993. "Evidence for Large Upward Trends of
Ultraviolet-B Radiation Linked to Ozone Depletion,"
Science, Vol. 262 (Nov. 12), p. 1032.

P.J.
Michaels, S.F. Singer, P.C. Knappenberger, 1994. "Analyzing
Ultraviolet-B Radiation, Is There a Trend?" Science, Vol. 264, p.
1341.

R.
Setlow, st al. 1993. "Wavelengths Effective in Induction of Malignant
Melanoma," Proceedings of the Nationel Academy of Sciences,
Vol. 90 (Juty). pp. 666$4667.

The
most important papers presented at the conference were published in book
form: Ozone, Sun, Cancer, edited by L. Dubertist, R. Santus, and P.
Morliere (Paris: Les Editions Inserm, 1995).

J. Moan
and A. Dahlback, 1995. "Ultraviolet Radiation and Skin Cancer.
Cutaneous Malignant Mslanoma," in Ozone, Sun, Cancer; see
note 10.

Richard
Elliot Benedick, 1991. Ozone Diplomacy, New Directions in
Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press),
pp. 1-2.

D.W.
Kaminski, 1988. "Refrigeration and Worldwide Food Economy,"
presentation at the Intemational Refrigeration Conference of the
Intemational Refrigeration Institute in Paris; cited at length in The
Holes in lhe Ozone Scare, p. 187. Prof.
Kaminski's work was done at the Institute of Agricultural and Foodstuff
Economy, Warsaw. Even Robert Watson, head of ths Ozone Trends Panel that was
instrumental in setting up the ozone depletion issue, admitted to joumalist
Alston Chase in 1989 that "probably more people would die from food
poisoning as a consequence of inadequate refrigeration than would die from
ozone depletion."

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The Ozone
Depletion Theory

The theory that man-made CFCs would
deplete the ozone layer is one of many theories claiming that ozone depletion
would lead to doomsday. The theory originated in March 1971, when James
McDonald, an atmospheric physicist from the University of Arizona, testified
at congressional hearings of the Super-Sonic Transport (SST) program.
At the time there was a major fight to kill the SST program, but all the
arguments of the opposition had failed.

McDonald presented his theory
that water vapor emissions from the SST were going to wipe out the ozone
layer, allowing a large amount of ultraviolet radiation to penetrate to the
surface of the Earth, which would allegedly cause a massive increase in skin
cancer incidence. The news media seized upon the skin cancer story and made it
the issue of the day. Funding for the SST was killed, and the ozone depletion
theory was born. McDonald had previously testified in Congress as an ardent
proponent of the theory that UFOs -unidentified flying object-
regularly visited the Earth, causing major electrical blackouts in the process
of recharging their alien spacecrafts.

Once the skin cancer scare hab
been established as an issue that would get the news media's attention, ozone
depletion theories began to proliferate. Some maintained that the ozone layer
was going to get wiped out by nitrogen oxides from atmospheric nuclear tests,
by nitrous oxides from nitrogen fertilizer, by methane from cows and rice
paddies, by chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust, by acid rain, and by
emissions from pesticides, fumigants, and so on.

Enter Rowland and Molina

The theory aiming that CFCs
would deplete the ozone layer was theory number 7, invented by F. Sherwood
Rowland and Mario Molina in December 1973. Rowland was then head of the
chemistry department at the University of California at Irvine, and Molina was
his assistant. At the time, the first five ozone depletion theories
(SST-water, SST-nitrogen oxides, atmospheric nuclear tests, fertilizers, and
methane gases from cows) had faded back into the background. The theory then
in vogue (#6) was that the chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust would cause
ozone holes over Florida and deplete the ozone layer worldwide. Rowland and
Molina, however, found a much better source of chlorine in the atmosphere than
the Space Shuttle: CFCs.

The Rowland and Molina theory says that
CFCs are so inert that there are no sinks (nothing to capture or destroy them)
in the troposphere (the portion of the atmosphere below the stratosphere.
Therefore, CFCs have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere.

Sherwood Rowland (left) at a 1993
NATO Advanced Workshop on ozone depletion, where he got into difficulty
answering a question on why there are no measured increases in UV if there
is ozone depletion. Rowland put the blame on the measuring devices, but
Dan erger (right), inventor of the devices, said that was not the
case.

According to the theory, the most common CFCs, CFC-11 and CFC-12, both very
long lived, remain in the atmosphere about 50 and 120 years, respectively.
After 5 years of cruising in the troposphere, the CFCs are transported into
the troposphere. There, the ultraviolet rays break them up into "free"
chlorine atoms (those that can combine with other elements) and other
molecules. This chlorine atom then supposedly breaks down ozone molecules. The
theory claims that this is a catalytic reaction, thus one single hyperactive
chlorine atom may destroy hundred of thousands of ozone molecules. This
reaction only stops when the chlorine atoms bind with other atoms or molecules
known as "reservoir compounds".

Not the Real
Story

Fortunately, Rowland and Molina's version of the
atmospheric chemistry is not the real story. The hypothetical threat to the
ozone is based on a set of flawed axioms and
assumptions fed into computer models that spew out doomsday
predictions. The required sequence of chemical reactions has never been
observed in the laboratory. It is all
supposition. For example, this theory neither predicted, nor can
explain the existence of the ozone
hole over Antarctica --another new theory that had to be
manufactured to explain that:

If any of the axioms and assumptions underlying the ozone depletion theory
are proven wrong, the whole edifice falls. The ozone depletion theory assumes,
for example, that there are:

No
natural sources of chlorine;

No sinks of for CFCs other than the stratopsphere;

No influence on the ozone layer from solar phenomena, including solar
proton events;

No long-term influence from atmospheric dynamics;

No influence from atmospheric elelctricity and electrochemical reactions
in the stratosphere;

No influence from geomagnetic fields;

and that an increase in UV-B causes an increase in malignant melanoma
skin cancers.

In fact, the
theory has been proved wrong on every
one of these assumptions, The promoters of the fraud protect
themselves by adding the caveat "significant" to these assertions (for example, that
there are not "significant" natural sources of chlorine, but in practice they
dismiss all factors other than those they choose.

Wrong Axioms, Wrong Methodology

More
important than these errors is the fact that the methodology used to arrive at
this set of beliefs is wrong. What has happened in the ozone depletion theory
is perhaps the best example.of the New Age transformation of science into a
"virtual reality" game in which
computer models have replaced reality. Scientific truth, real world
observations, nature, the biosphere, are all swept aside by the irrational
belief that whatever image or numbers appear on the computer screen is
reality. The scientific hypothesis has been replaced by "mathematical models" or, more precisely, the
theory of "systems
analysis".

These models are made up of collections of
mathematical and chemical formulas that purport to represent the behavior of
the atmosphere and its components. The models are "validated" by the same hand picked group of
"experts" that compare the results of
one model versus another --but not versus the real
world.

Dissenting voices are summarily excluded from the deliberations or the
complaints are simply ignored. This is called the "assessment process". Then, when all models are
compared, a "consensus" is formed and
an edict is issued: Mankind faces doom because some model says this or that
action will cause some damaging effects a half-century to a century down the
line. These edicts are then promoted in the news media, and opposing views or
evidence are seldom, if ever, mentioned.

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The Crista-Spas
Project

(all
information needed is available directly from Crista
Project website. Click on the link)

Crista, Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the
Atmosphere, is a group of infrared instruments sensing the middle
atmosphere (10 km to 100 km) from an Earth orbit. Spas is the acronym for
Shuttle Pallet Satellite, the spacecraft carrying Crista. It is
launched into Earth orbit by the Space Shuttle and deployed in free flight for
several days, at a distance between 20 and 120 km from the Shuttle.

Crista's measurements achieve and unprecedented spatial resolution;
vertical resolution is 1.5 km, and horizontal resolution is 500 km by 650 km.
The instrument is designed to measure small- and medium-scale dynamical
structures in the middle atmosphere. Such structures, which until now have
been inaccesible to satellite measurements, have strong influence on the
photochemistry and energy budget of the atmosphere.

The Crista experiment uses minor constituents in the atmosphere as tracers
for atmospheric dynamics (waves, turbulence, and so on). The emissions of
these trace gases in the middle- and far-infrared are determined by means of
the limb-scanning technique, and yields the spatial distribution of these
gases.

High spatial resolution is obtained (a) by high measurement speed and (b)
by using three telescopes that measure simultaneously in three different view
directions. High measuring speed is obtained by cooling all parts of the
optics by cryogenic temperatures. Satellite measurements show that many
parameters of the middle atmosphere exhibit large-scale variations (over
several thousand km). These disturbances are quite frequent and often of
considerable magnitude.

Small-scale structures of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand
kilometers were previously determined under favorable conditions by rocket,
balloon, and ground based measurements. These can be quite pronounced, but
htese measurements yielded local snapshots only. Hence, little was known about
the frequency of occurrence of small- and medium-scale structures.

Crista is the first attempt to determine the global distribution and the
frequency of occurrence of such structures. Du
ring the relatively short
flight time of a Space Shuttle mission, Crista recorded as much data as a
typical satellite instrument does in half a year -more than 50,000 images in
eight days.

Crista was also able to determine the large-scale structures in the
atmosphere persent during its deployment. Dynamical structures on all scales
have string influence, especially on the photochemistry of the middle
atmosphere. For that reason, the Crista mission is complemented by an
experiment on the Spas that can measure radicals in the middle atmosphere,
Mahrsi (Middle Atmosphere High Resolution Spectograph
Investigation).

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